Climate Change and International Migration: Evidence from Tajikistan
Scientific arguments and evidence have drawn increasing attention to changes in the global climate in terms of rising global air temperature and sea level, retreating snow cover and glaciers, altered precipitation patterns, and more frequent extreme weather events (National Centers for Environmental Information 2020). While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2014) has argued that the greatest impact of climate change could be on human migration and has predicted that 200 million people will have migrated from their place of origin by 2050, the evidence for the effect of environmental factors on human migration, particularly on temporary migration as an adaptive strategy to confront climate stress, remains inconclusive. Because environmental factors affect both the incentive and the ability to migrate, the relationship is not straightforward and involves many complexities.
Environmental factors could exert substantially heterogeneous impacts on migration depending on the initial climatic and socio-economic conditions of the countries in question (Obokata et al. 2014; Berlemann and Steinhardt 2017). Many developing countries are predicted to be disproportionally affected by climate change due to their geography, agriculture-based economies, and lack of adaptive mechanisms (Beine |and Parsons 2017).
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